Bitcoin Key Indicator Signals Major Move on Horizon: Potential Scenarios

Bitcoin Key Indicator Signals Major Move on Horizon: Potential Scenarios

Bitcoin Consolidates Near $98K as Market Awaits Next Major Move

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, remains in a consolidation phase, trading within a relatively stable range of $93,000 to $98,000 for several weeks.

Market Consolidation and Volatility Trends

After reaching an all-time high of $109,114 on January 20, 2025, Bitcoin attempted to break above $105,000 twice in late January but failed to sustain momentum. This resulted in market contraction and declining price momentum across major assets.

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s one-week realized volatility has dropped to 23.42%, approaching historic lows seen in October 2024 (22.88%) and November 2023 (21.35%). Historically, such volatility compressions have preceded major market movements. Similarly, Bitcoin's one-week options implied volatility has fallen to 37.39%, a multi-year low, suggesting that a period of significant price action may be imminent.

Key Levels and Market Scenarios

Analysts believe Bitcoin is at a critical inflection point:

• Bullish Scenario: If demand remains strong, BTC could break past $109,114 and establish a new trading range above its ATH.
• Bearish Scenario: A lack of sustained buying pressure might lead to a deeper correction, similar to past post-ATH phases, driven by profit-taking and market fear.

Support and Resistance Levels

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 1.49% in the last 24 hours, trading at $98,915, with an intraday high of $98,980. BTC is currently facing resistance at $99,067 (daily SMA 50)—a breakout above this level is necessary to push towards $100,000.

On the downside, a strong support zone exists around $97,100, where 2.76 million addresses have accumulated 2.1 million BTC, according to IntoTheBlock. This suggests significant buying interest, which could act as a buffer against further declines.

With volatility at historic lows, traders are closely watching for Bitcoin’s next big move.