Prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi expect 79-89% chance of US TikTok ban: Trump to ‘review’ situation

Prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi expect 79-89% chance of US TikTok ban: Trump to ‘review’ situation

Cryptocurrency prediction markets are increasingly confident that TikTok could face a ban in the United States by May 2025, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi showing high odds of this outcome.

Polymarket's prediction indicates a 79% chance of TikTok being banned, with significant trading volume reaching $5.6 million. Meanwhile, Kalshi predicts an 89% likelihood of a ban, supported by $2.23 million in wagers. Both platforms have seen a sharp rise in these probabilities since early January 2025, indicating growing market confidence in the ban.

These prediction markets operate similarly to stock exchanges, where users purchase contracts based on the likelihood of specific real-world events. In this case, traders stand to win payouts if TikTok is banned for download and/or use by the majority of Americans before April 30, 2025.

The surge in trading volumes reflects the strong conviction among market participants regarding the possible ban.

What’s Driving the Potential Ban?

The prediction markets’ high odds are driven by ongoing legislative efforts. A new law taking effect this Sunday lays the groundwork for the TikTok ban, although President Biden has indicated that he won’t enforce it during his last day in office. This gives the incoming Trump administration the power to extend the ban by 90 days once he takes office.

The potential ban has sparked considerable public attention. High-profile figures, such as YouTuber MrBeast, have even expressed interest in acquiring TikTok to prevent its shutdown. In a recent tweet, MrBeast revealed that he had been contacted by multiple billionaires about a potential acquisition, though the feasibility of such a deal remains uncertain.

Additionally, Kevin O'Leary, the host of Shark Tank, and former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers Frank McCourt have also shown interest in buying TikTok’s U.S. operations.

Trump’s Role and Upcoming Decision

As the debate around TikTok’s future intensifies, former President Donald Trump has also weighed in. Trump recently discussed the situation with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and shared on Truth Social that a Supreme Court ruling is expected soon regarding the TikTok sale-or-ban law.

Trump stated, “My decision on TikTok will be made in the not too distant future, but I must have time to review the situation,” signaling that his administration will play a key role in determining TikTok’s fate in the U.S.

Rising Uncertainty for TikTok

The growing confidence in a TikTok ban, as indicated by the prediction markets, highlights increasing concerns about the app's future in the United States. With the Trump administration soon to take office and various high-profile individuals showing interest in its acquisition, the situation remains fluid, leaving the platform’s future hanging in the balance.